Is this Ducati’s year?

It has been 15 years since Ducati was last able to win a MotoGP world title, and for most of the last 5 or 6 years, it has felt as though they have been so close to getting it done. So, the question is, will this be another year of looking at what could have been, or can they finally seal the deal?

Looking at this season on paper, the odds were looking great for them. Their bike was improving in the corners year on year, they had a larger portion of the grid on their bikes, a third in fact, and the number of top level riders was higher too within their fold. Their rivals were weaker as well, Yamaha was still struggling with power, Honda didn’t really have their lead rider at peak strength, Suzuki couldn’t quite find their edge, KTM had no one lap pace, and Aprilia was still trying to prove itself. Everything looked like it was set up perfectly for them. As it was though, the first part of the season was inconsistent for the team, with Bastianini in particular scoring a fair few wins, but interspersing crashes as well into the mix. Bagnaia meanwhile just couldn’t find any pace, as the 2022 bike was still being worked on.

By the time that Bagnaia had got his act together, he had allowed Quartararo to build a healthy title lead. Then, further mistakes occurred, such as at Le Mans, where Bagnaia lost an easy 2nd place, going for the win. It has taken until the second half of the season for him to really form a championship run, taking 4 wins in a row, and closing the title fight right in. His ability on the bike to brake late and be consistent, means he is a fearsome competitor in a battle.

By now, the 2022 bike does seem to be tuned in very well, and competitive on almost all tracks, although Bastianini is proving that the old bike is equally as good. This suggests that in fact Ducati have not made huge gains over the previous year, yet some of that could just be the brilliance of Enea. Bastianini has had a season of highs and lows, which might hopefully improve as he matures in the sport. He is still an outsider in the title fight, but cannot be ruled out, especially if he finds his winning form again, he could also be a thorn in the side of Pecco, especially if they do more battling.

The last race at Motegi was the perfect example of this, firstly neither rider had the pace to win, but their battling didn’t help either of them pass Fabio. In the end, Bagnaia played a desperate move on the Yamaha rider to try and save his day, which only made it worse. I don’t think it is time yet for team orders, but both riders need to play it smart around each other. If we progress a few races, and Enea is unable to make strong gains in the championship, with a race or two to go he should cede to Bagnaia in races where it is deemed to be necessary, although I am sure he won’t enjoy doing that.

On the other hand, if Bastianini is able to make gains on Fabio, they Ducati should let them race, as having two in the fight is a great advantage to them. Personally, I can’t see Enea making major gains on the Yamaha rider and winning the title. Yes, he is likely to make some, given the clear strength of that bike, but closing the gap entirely is another question, especially bearing in mind how good Quartararo is right now.

That means it is all down to Bagnaia in my view, and closing 25 points is very much doable. Firstly, he has to solve his wet weather issues, without that, his weekend in Thailand could be a lost cause, and with it likely the title. He has to be on it every race weekend, one slip up and that’s it, unless some crazy stuff happens. Thailand in the dry could be great for Ducati, but if its wet it could fall apart. Australia with long corners might help the Yamaha, but will be close, and Malaysia might swing back to Ducati, and the season closer being so tight should help Yamaha. That is a tall ask for Pecco to be consistent, as he is prone to the odd mistake, and the pressure may be too much for him. If I had to call it right now, I don’t think he will do it. He will very likely have another win or two in the season, but I feel that Quartararo will best him in another few, and balance out the results.

In reality, this wasn’t meant to be the part of the season where the Ducati would claw back a big deficit, it shouldn’t have had to fight from so far back. Mistakes at the start of the year have left riders with too much on their plate. The sheer amount of errors done by Bagnaia in particular, show that this likely should have been Ducati’s year. More than 50 points have been lost through rider errors mostly. It could be a tough pill to swallow for the team. Issues with the bike in the first few races undoubtedly didn’t help the situation, so the blame isn’t all on Pecco.

If this doesn’t end up being their year, it’s not as though next year will be quite as good a chance as this one. With Yamaha reportedly finding more power, Honda having their top man back in the game, Aprilia continuing their surge forwards, and KTM fixing their issues potentially, the competition will only get harder. Even with Bastianini with all his skill joining the factory team next year, this year could potentially be seen as their best chance for the next few years, at the championship.

-M