2023 Prediction – Alpine

Frankly, it is long overdue for Alpine to break through to the front of the grid. There has been plenty of talk about 5-year plans and so on, but nothing has come true yet. 2022 saw some signs of potential for the team, but we need to see some more hard evidence if it is to be believed.

Last year was strong overall for the French team, but it was just before midway through the season, when it really began to start clicking for them. That was when they could consistently fight and beat McLaren, at some tracks they even looked like they could fight the top 3 teams. It was only their lack of reliability that allowed McLaren to stay in the fight. That is something they need to address if they want to fight towards the front.

The addition of Otmar Szafnauer to the team was a good move, he is experienced, and knows how to get the most out of a team. Abiteboul, the previous team principal, seemed to have stalled the team out in the midfield. At the end of the day however, one man won’t change a huge amount, we need to see the whole organisation take the next step forwards. Whilst they certainly have the backing to be a front runner, I still just don’t feel as if they have what it takes yet to fight for titles. I can’t put my finger on what it is, but there is something lacking from the team.

The loss of Alonso from the team was big, his experience is incredibly valuable, as well as his raw speed. Ocon is a strong driver, but the jury is still out on whether he can be a team leader. He was able to match it with Alonso last year, but his petulance is a major issue, especially in on track battles. It is something he needs to sort out fast.

This might be the most worrying thing for the team, as they bring in an old enemy of Ocon’s, Gasly. This storyline has been talked about to death in the off season, but it is true that if things are allowed to spiral out of control, it could be disastrous. I do hope that they have both got past their past grievances, and can work together well. There is the matter of French pride on the line now throughout the team.

Testing has caused a lot of people to question the hints we were getting pre-season, that Alpine might be fast. They weren’t terrible during the Bahrain test, but there was a real lack of pace shown, which is concerning. I am sure they will be good, but you would want to know what the car feels like on a qualifying simulation, before you get into the race weekend.

The other notable point from testing, was that on each day, the times for each driver were very close together. This suggests that each driver had similar run plans. In a testing situation, this is a stupid move, as it limits what you can learn, if you repeat everything twice. I fear it was done to massage egos, so that no driver had an advantage. If this is the case, it is rather concerning for the season ahead, if they must protect the team so early on.

Right now, I can’t see anything special coming from Alpine this season, the mixture of lack of pace shown so far, and the fragile driver pairing, doesn’t give me hope. They will probably start the year 5th best team, behind Aston Martin, but fighting them on occasion. Then as McLaren improve, they will be their main competition.

-M

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