2023 is a year where McLaren needs to be showing signs of progress towards the front of the field. On paper the cost cap should be aiding them in doing so, but the problem is there are two other teams trying to do the same thing, and before long McLaren could be the sixth best team.
McLaren entered the new regulations having challenged Ferrari for 3rd in the constructors in 2021. As a result, there was an expectation that the team would grow on that success in 2022 and continue to fight for podiums last year. That wasn’t the case though, as apart from Imola, they couldn’t really get close to one. If anything, 2021 was false hope for them.
2022 wasn’t a bad year at all for the team, they were consistently best of the rest, with Lando often topping the midfield. Alpine did come on strong at points during the year, and were faster at plenty of tracks, but if Ricciardo had been closer to Norris, McLaren would have been 4th in the constructors. In that regard, it was a successful year, however, they took a large step back from the top three teams, which isn’t acceptable, especially if they want to keep Norris.
It feels like a case of an identity crisis, where McLaren want to think they are this huge powerhouse of a racing team, but they are struggling to show it on track. There is a strong argument that their endeavours into IndyCar and Formula E, might be distracting them from Formula 1.
The problem McLaren have for 2022 isn’t if they can gain on the top teams, as I am sure they will, the real worry is if they will be overtaken by Aston Martin and Alpine. These are two huge organisations who are focused on Formula 1 and could very easily jump up to the sharp end of the sport. If suddenly McLaren find themselves 6th, it would be a disaster, and their drivers might be looking for the door very quickly.
Before testing this wasn’t as much of a concern, as McLaren we believed to be making progress, and with two young, fast drivers, anything was possible. However, after the three days of testing, it is clear there are not just concerns, there are real problems. McLaren has taken a new design philosophy for this year, which in the long run might pay off, but right now, the car is far too draggy. Yes, in a few months’ time they might have made major improvements, but lost momentum is hard to gain back, and if Alpine and Aston Martin are ahead and producing upgrades, it could be too late for McLaren.
As much as it was very sad to see Daniel Ricciardo leave F1, it was the right decision for both parties. It just wasn’t working out, and a reset might be best. Piastri is possibly the hottest prospect right now, and so it was the perfect decision for McLaren to grab him when they did. Bringing Andrea Stella up to team principal was clearly not what they had planned, it was just the best choice they had, after Seidl left. Even Stella didn’t seem too excited about it, but he has enough experience to do the job well.
The two drivers will probably get on well, as they are similar, but if the team does find success soon, it could get spicy between them. Lando was not in a good frame of mind during testing, clearly not pleased with the situation. I can’t see him staying with the team beyond his current contract. He might have options at Red Bull, Mercedes, and even Aston Martin, if Alonso retires in the next few years.
I don’t think it will be the absolute disaster some people predict this season, but they may start the season battling Alfa Romeo for 6th, before then progressing forwards, and being on the back of Aston Martin and Alpine by the end of the season. That will mean 6th in the constructors most likely for them, unless the team rivalry at Alpine completely implodes. It could be a humbling time for the team if they aren’t careful.
-M
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