Aston Martin are a team who could potentially in the near future, break into the top part of the F1 grid, the new factory, along with high profile signings, is showing their intent to become a force in the sport.
2022 was a growing year for the team, as they understood their new car. It was clear they did not have a handle on it at all to begin with, but gradually found their way, and showed much more potential in the last few races. The slow start may have been as a result of the transition from old to new factories, or simply an incorrect design path. It was clear though that they should have done a better job in that first season of new regulations. Teams like Alpine/Renault have shown that just having big support behind an operation doesn’t mean that it will automatically go forwards.
It is clear they now have the budget and resources to fight with the big teams, the question is if they can use it as efficiently as they can. They will still be somewhat hampered by the ongoing factory transition, yet this is also an opportunity to use a years’ worth of learnings, to vault themselves up the field. They need to, if not this year, then next year, be on terms with Alpine and McLaren, as they are now an outfit capable of matching them.
Vettel leaving the team will have left a hole in it, especially given how well he did last year. However, Alonso joining the team will be close to an equal trade, as they are both in similar positions. Fernando will also bring his knowledge from Alpine, and the killer instinct he has in the car, especially on a Sunday. Stroll is a difficult one to judge, as his position as the son of the boss will always skew opinions. To me, he isn’t a terrible driver, he has his moments of brilliance, but he lacks that killer instinct, his judgement in battles is awful. Should there be a different driver in that seat? Possibly, but he isn’t a total fraud.
The teammate situation is therefore likely to stay similar, with Alonso being comfortably ahead of Stroll, especially on race day. There might well be some tracks and situations where Lance can get close, such as in the wet, where he always excels, but overall, I doubt it will be close.
2023 must be a step forward for them, at a minimum they should overtake Alfa Romeo, and be fighting with Alpine and McLaren on occasion. They had a good consistency last year, with a car finishing in the points at most races, the issue was that Alfa Romeo had that blitz of points to start the year, which was enough to keep 6th.
At the time of writing this, the feeling in the paddock is that they might be fighting straight away for 4th best team. The pace of the car has been very strong in the hands of Alonso, although as always, we can’t read too much into testing. Nevertheless, the confidence of the team, despite stopping on track at the start of testing, does suggest it could go well for them.
My view is that they will be right in the fight with Alpine for 4th best team. My only concern about that is the performance of Stroll, if he can’t be close to Alonso, it might drag the constructors points down. The driver line ups of Alpine and McLaren are stronger than Aston Martin, so whilst I foresee Alonso being in the fight, I don’t think they will get 4th in the constructors, even if they are 4th fastest. That’s the unfortunate thing about the Aston Martin situation, but I do hope that Stroll is able to recover and race as soon as possible.
-M
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