There are quite a few reasons to be interested in the performance of the junior Red Bull team this year. Not only because of the youth of their driver line up, but also because it could be decisive for the future of the team.
Last year, Alpha Tauri was possibly the biggest let down of the grid, alongside Mercedes. Coming off the back of a strong 2021, where they could have had a stellar season if it wasn’t for Tsunoda’s struggles, it was clear they didn’t prioritise 2022 enough. To be fair to them, they were able to score points at several tracks and were only 20 points away from being 6th. However, when you put that in the context of the equipment that Red Bull were supplying them, with the engine, suspension and other components, we should have seen better from them.
Their issues probably do boil down to misallocation of resources, or following the wrong development path, which can be fixed over the off season. There was also a feeling that Gasly wasn’t quite at his best, despite getting almost double the points of his teammate. Tsunoda had a more promising year than 2021, although that wasn’t exactly hard to achieve, but there are still improvements he needs to make.
Looking towards this year, they have likely learnt a lot from a season of running the car, the question is can they improve relative to their competitors? Beating Aston Martin and Alfa Romeo you would say is unlikely, given the backing they both have. The Faenza squad most likely will continue to be battling with Haas and Williams, towards the back of the grid, simply due to the size of their operation. Just like Williams, they need more convergence in the years down the line, to get on an equal playing field with the teams with larger budgets. We don’t know Alpha Tauri’s budget, but I doubt they are maxing out the cost cap.
On the other hand, they are the team most likely, of the smaller ones, to find some incredible idea within the rules, to vault themselves up the field. Tost is a great leader and will have motivated the engineers to find any performance avenue they can. Them being able to find an avenue to exploit like this is a long shot, but you never know.
As for the driver pairing, it could end up being fascinating. Both are young and hungry, and Tsunoda will be entering an almost team leader role, yet he is still so young and inexperienced, which could lead to fireworks. This I think will be accentuated if De Vries pushes him hard all year, which given his pedigree is highly likely. If they are meeting a lot on track, it could boil over very quickly, which will really test Franz’s ability to lead the team.
Looking further to the future of the team, I see a very real possibility, if 2023 plays out rather like 2022, that Red Bull decide to sell the team. You could argue why now, given these regulations give a more level playing field? Firstly, the unfortunate death of Dietrich Mateschitz, who loved racing, might lead the board members to reconsider their position in F1. Is owning two teams necessary? They could just advertise the Alpha Tauri clothing through the main Red Bull team and save 10s of millions.
Secondly, the current worth of a F1 team is at a record high, and there is no guarantee it will stay that high. The possibility of getting half a billion dollars for a team would be very enticing, especially given that it would only take one bad decision by F1 on its future direction, for that to plummet fast. Finally, there are willing parties to take them up on the offer. Andretti Autosport may well be happy to spend that type of money on a team, as it could be a cheaper option for them as well. On that possibility, remember Colton Herta an Andretti Autosport driver, was nearly allowed to join Alpha Tauri for this season, it was only the FIA that blocked it. Was that a precursor to a larger deal?
Bringing this back to the present day, I do believe they will best the other small teams of Haas and Williams and end up 8th in the constructors. The battle will be close with Haas, but the Alpha Tauri car will be slightly better. As for the drivers, I think De Vries will keep a cooler head if the rivalry heats up, and barely beat Yuki. It could be great entertainment to watch, but potentially disastrous for the team if it goes too far.
-M
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