As the paddock began its pack down following the Australian Grand Prix back in April, there was a true sense that this was Ferrari’s year. Even without Verstappen’s DNF’s, Leclerc would have been able to win both at Albert Park, as well as in Bahrain to start the year. Even on the unusually characterised circuit in Saudi Arabia, with its big long straights, which were meant to favour the less draggy and more powerful Red Bull, the Prancing Horse was able to give them a close run thing. So, how did it all far apart so fast?
As with anything, it is never just one factor, but instead a combination of them, conspiring to bring the show down. In my view, the largest of them all is simply the car pace, and the philosophy of the two fastest cars. Ferrari were able to come out of the blocks with the best optimised car, a car that all through the season has looked like the easiest to drive, but the evolution during the season has been lacking, whereas Red Bull have been gradually able to improve and pull away. It is unclear if this is due to Ferrari being stuck in a dead-end, or being caught by other limiting factors. My opinion would be with the latter, simply as a result of the violent bouncing we have witnessed all season from the Ferrari car. Circuits such as Albert Park and Baku showed that the Ferrari was actually one of the worst for bouncing of all the teams on the grid, they were just able to still get lap time out of it. That being said, both drivers have admitted during the year, that the bouncing has hurt them in the corners, with the oscillations affecting the grip levels. This phenomena will surely have caused the Ferrari engineers to focus time and effort on fixing these oscillations, as opposed to working on other areas to gain lap time. Additionally, some upgrades that Ferrari may have brought to the car, could potentially have made the bouncing worse, rendering them useless, and a waste of time. We may never know for sure, but this may well have been the cause of their pace stagnation, which always seemed to be better over one lap compared to a race distance.
This factor alone would likely have been enough to dissolve any attempt at the title, especially given the strength of the Red Bull package right now at almost all tracks, and the lack of mistakes they are making as they go for back-to-back titles, but at least we would have had a closer title fight. Unfortunately for Ferrari fans, that isn’t the only error they made this year, and it was far from the most embarrassing.
Next, is another mechanical design issue with the car, this time with the powertrain though. The amount of failures for Ferrari powered cars this year has been eyewatering, and have been caused by a variety of issues, which is rather more worrying. Alfa Romeo seem to have bore the brunt of them, but the main team has been far from immune, with both drivers suffering two catastrophic failures. In Leclerc’s case, these were from winning positions, which had huge points implications. The sheer number of issues, suggests inherent flaws in the engine, which need to be fixed, although given the engines are frozen for a few years, it could be difficult to do so.
The drivers themselves have not be immune to making mistakes, and given it is their first time in a title fight, it is understandable, although still not acceptable. Sainz was able to get his out of the way early on in the year, although is still trying to get on his teammates pace. As for Charles, who was deeper in the title fight all season, Imola served as a wake up call, to not try and achieve more than is possible, but only lost a small amount of points. He made the odd small mistake afterwards, such as Q3 at Silverstone, but it was France which felt like a turning point in the championship. Leading the race from the start, and able to hold off the Red Bull, he pushed too hard during a pit stop sequence, once again seemingly overstepping the bounds of his vehicle, costing him a potential race win. The hope is that these events will serve as life lessons, and only time will tell if they have worked.
The final factor has been the most publicly criticised failure of the team this season, although it was not the largest factor in their demise. The reason for the criticism, is simply due to the simplicity of the errors they have made, when strategizing the pit stop sequence of a race. This began really at Monaco, which to be fair was not an easy situation, yet there is still no excuse for the confusion they seemed to be under. In changing conditions you need to be decisive, and stick to a plan to the bitter end, but they were half-hearted, and changed half way through, which dropped Charles from first to fourth, and left him inconsolable. It was always going to be easier for Red Bull to attack them in that situation, but Ferrari had the advantage of car pace. They should have pit Sainz early on to protect the undercut, and kept Charles out with track position to go straight to dry tyres.
Next came Silverstone, which admittedly did have an element of risk either way for Ferrari, but it showed that in a time pressured scenario, they aren’t able to act fast enough. What actually scuppered them more, was how long it took for them to allow Leclerc past Sainz early on in the race, if they had done it earlier, it would have given them more options at the crunch time. I do understand why Ferrari is gun shy about team orders though! These two previous errors pale into insignificance though, compared to the last one, which occurred at the Hungarian Grand Prix. On that cold day, everyone and their mother knew not to touch the hard tyre, as it was too cold for it work. Ferrari though, who were leading with Leclerc, and may well have won if they had extended their second stint and gone onto another medium set, instead decided to pit early for hard tyres, causing Charles to plummet through the field. This was a monumental mistake, which illustrated perfectly the turmoil the team is in currently.
Some of these mistakes can be somewhat excused, such as the car pace, given they have gone from being a midfield team to the second best car, who can win on paper fairly often. The driver errors too do happen sometimes, but need to be eradicated quickly if the team wants to succeed at the top level. The powertrain problems on the other hand are concerning, and I hope that plenty of effort is being put into rectifying it, as a championship fight cannot be fought with a lack of reliability. Each of these issues in isolation are not as concerning as when they are twinned with the strategy fumbles we have witnessed, which suggest an overhaul is needed at the very least within the strategy department, and potentially on a wider scale.
Binotto is acting like the captain of a sinking ship, pretending all is going fine. I hope that this is just a façade to protect the team from the ruthless Italian media, and inside Ferrari he is talking within the team, and trying to find ways to solve their problems. Ferrari are not far away from a true title challenge, in fact they had us all convinced to start the year, they just need to re-engineer the cracks that are forming, not just cover them in masking tape. A lot of their issues can be fixed simply from learning, both about their new engine, and the new formula of car, as the philosophy of both is sound.
The final question really is of, how it was all allowed to happen, in one of the biggest teams in the sport, and who should be held accountable? Undoubtedly, Mattia will have to shoulder a lot of the blame, as he is the one who manages it all. The concern comes back to one which came up when he took up the role of Team Principal in 2019, which is: as an engineer within Ferrari both before and during his leading role, would he be able to balance his time effectively, and have the skills to manage an enormous operation?
In all honesty, I am yet to be convinced he can. The errors we have seen do suggest an organisation that is being stretched thin in some way, and it may well be at the top! It is clear that Ferrari has the skills, knowledge and drivers to win a title, but if it cannot be put together properly, it amounts to nothing. My personal opinion, is that Ferrari cannot win when it is being run by someone who has grown up within Ferrari, as they are unable to disconnect from the emotion of it all. Take for example the Schumacher era at Ferrari, when Todt, Brawn and Bryne came in from outside, and heralded the dawn of a new era for the team, following an extremely long dry patch. They were able to join the team, and best conduct the orchestra of talent within the team, by looking from a purely logical standpoint, without looking at tradition and friendships.
I’m not saying completely overhaul the upper management at the team, as they have clearly almost cracked it, but it may just take one final hire from outside the Ferrari family to get them across the finish line!
-M
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