Time to work out who is telling the truth, and who is lying!
It is that time of the year again, for me to take a swing, and probably a miss, at who is going to be fastest for this season. Testing this season has given us some hints as to what we might see, yet there is still a lot of room for error, before we get a true picture in a week’s time!
Starting in last place, my gut feeling is that Alfa Romeo are really struggling to deal with the issues they are seeing. They had limited mileage during testing, and were blighted with issues across both tests. I am probably going to be proved wrong here, as the experience and pace of Bottas could really be of aid to them this year. Zhou too has looked pretty good; the issue is that all of the teams seem to have pace of some sort.
Looking at the overall times from testing, Haas should not be as low as ninth, however, my guess is that the lap from Schumacher was them giving it their all. It does look like they have made a pretty good step over the winter, and that the sacrifice of 2021 was worth it. I just don’t see them being able to make a huge leap up the field, especially as they are still a small team. They might be helped by their pretty good driver line up, as Mick could potentially grow further this year, and we know how good Magnussen is.
To be honest, I want to put Aston Martin lower down than 8th, which I think shows just how average they look right now. The reason I am not doing that, is that they are more likely to hold pace back than Haas or Alfa Romeo. If they are 8th, or even lower, this will be a diabolical year for them, and will not give them redemption after a poor 2021. The issue I see, is that they are still in their old factory, and so have limited resources, it will take time before they can truly reap the rewards of the Aston Martin and Lawrence Stroll partnership. I fear for Vettel, who could start to contemplate his future, is this is true. The simple issue they have, is that there are loads of great teams in F1, so being good isn’t enough anymore.
Williams is looking in the best shape they have been for 5 or 6 years. They didn’t do anything spectacular, instead, we just saw consistent laps, and promising pace. Their porpoising didn’t look terrible either, which could be of aid to them. I really hope my prediction is true, as the team deserves a further upturn in form, after 3 or 4 tough years.
AlphaTauri is becoming the new Force India, in that they are doing a lot with very little. Yes, they are getting a lot of help from Red Bull, however, you have to know how to use what you are given. Much like Williams, they had a solid test, with very little issues, and even went fastest on one of the days. Their pace could be helped by just how good Gasly is driving at the moment, and if Tsunoda can get his act together, they have a lot of potential for 2022.
I want to predict better than 5th for Alpine, as just like Aston Martin, this wouldn’t be a satisfactory result for them, yet it hasn’t been a smooth test at all for the French outfit. There was the fire for Alonso in Barcelona, and Ocon stopped in Bahrain too, on top of that, the feeling from the team suggests they aren’t ready to make a step forward yet. A manufacturer like Alpine, needs to be making progress, as before long, the board will start to lose hope in the program. This could be the same case for Alonso very soon. My thoughts are that their pace will be better over the season than last year, it just won’t be enough to join the top 4.
McLaren may have had the worst test in Bahrain of every team, just because of their brake cooling issues. As a result, if they fix that one issue, there is no reason why we shouldn’t see a return to the pace there was at Barcelona, from the team. There was a strong sense of optimism in the first test, however, due to the issues, I cannot see them being able to beat the other 3 teams.
Yes, Red Bull was fastest on the final day of testing, and do look very comfortable now that they got the final upgrades, but my gut is telling me they have been pushing more than the other two teams. If they are 3rd, it won’t be by much, as the car clearly has pace, it is just that a lot of the signs from the team make it seem as though they fear the pace of the others. Race wins will probably come to the team, it is just a question of how many they get.
If we were going just off of testing, and the vibes of the teams in the paddock, Ferrari would be first, it is simply because of reasons I will explain later, that I can’t do so. Ferrari have had by far the best test of the grid, and seem pleased with how it is going, there are no major concerns for them at all, and the pace is superb. Reliability too has been rock solid. Their innovative side pods have got the other teams talking, and could be a magic bullet for them. Their driving pairing will be another huge strength for them, as the youthful experience of both drivers, could worry some other teams.
It wouldn’t be testing without Mercedes sandbagging, and claiming they are not the fastest car, and just for that reason, I cannot put them anywhere other than first. Yes, the car does seem hard to drive, but it looked worse in testing last year, and they were able to turn it around. The new sidepod design has got other teams guessing, and on the speed traps, they have been one of the slowest cars, suggesting lower engine modes. I really hope that if they are first, it is only just, as otherwise many people will not appreciate the new regulations, and we all want close racing anyway.
Most of this has been utter guess work, and will almost certainly be at least partially wrong. It does seem as though the grid has closed up from front to back, as was planned in the regulations, we will just have to wait and see if the racing is better too. In summary of this article, my gut feeling is Ferrari are the favourites, yet my brain cannot ignore Mercedes!
-M
Meaning of Motorsport 