This could be a weekend like no other!
It all comes down to this, one final race, where any tiny slip up or mistake can have huge consequences. There is also the matter of getting used to a new track, which may favour Mercedes over Red Bull!
Having come back from a huge deficit, Mercedes and Hamilton are the favourites this weekend, especially given their form around here. As well as momentum, the team just in general seems to be in a great place, probably relishing the challenge in front of them. Lewis was slightly slower than Max in the morning, but his lap in FP2 was likely unbeatable, even if Max had got a proper lap in. Engines will be a question once again this weekend, and with the super engine now in its third weekend, how much can Mercedes afford to turn it up? I think they will still have the advantage over Red Bull tomorrow; however, race pace could be much closer in my opinion, and that’s what matters. On his last weekend at the team, Bottas started the weekend a bit scrappy, with a huge lock up and a tap with the wall, he got away with it, and will want to end it all on a high.
You get the feeling that Red Bull are worried that the title is slipping away from them at the last moment, and after a brilliant season for them, it would be hard to take for the whole team. Max’s luck has been slightly worse than Lewis, although that has been balanced out, you could argue, by aggression and tantrums by Red Bull. They are not far away from Mercedes at all this weekend, yet I think Verstappen may struggle to overhaul the Mercedes unless we get a crazy race. He also needs to calm his racing down a bit after Saudi Arabia, as if he makes a slight mistake here, it could ruin his entire year! Perez could play a role in deciding the title, but to do so, he has to get himself clear of the midfield this weekend.
With the constructors basically done for Ferrari, they said they could turn the engines right up for the final round. So, given how good the new engine is already, who knows what they could do on Sunday, maybe give us a preview of 2022? Despite a quieter Friday, I do expect big things from Ferrari this weekend, but nonetheless, it has been a great turn around year for them after 2020. The two teammates also need to keep it clean, as the battles between those two seem to be getting fiercer week by week.
McLaren have some good points on the board now from the last few races, and this track could actually be one to suit them. Norris will be out for vengeance after getting very annoyed at the Red Flag rules a week ago. Fighting for 5th in the driver’s title will also motivate him, as the idea of him being 6th or 7th would have been crazy a few months ago. AlphaTauri are once again ominous in the top 10, points are definitely on the cards here for them. It is nice also to see Tsunoda starting to get a streak of good performances under his belt.
Alpine have been one of the star teams of the final stretch of the season, and I know this is just Friday, but surely, they can’t lose that much overnight. Ocon is starting to perform on Alonso’s level at this part of the season, after being hit and miss early on, and has the potential to lead the team in the future. Being best of the rest to end the season will send a statement to teams like Ferrari and McLaren, that they can’t just look at the teams ahead in 2022, they need to be wary behind them too.
Aston Martin and Alfa Romeo had difficult days, Aston just lacked pace once again, and they can’t rely on Sunday to solve a poor Saturday. The only upside for them is that this year is almost over, and they will have been the team most looking forward to next year! Kimi finished his final Friday practice in the wall, leaving his team a lot of work to do, hopefully he can make up for it over the next two days, and end his career on a good note! Points for Russell as he leaves Williams seems to be a long shot, and Mick is yet again grabbing at the heels of the teams ahead, showing off his talent!
Both drivers deserve the title, but the form guide would say that Lewis is the favourite. However, to summarise how I feel about the weekend, I will take something Damon Hill said yesterday. I don’t care if Verstappen or Lewis wins, I want F1 to win, and have a clean, fair decider, to show the world how good this sport can be!
-M
Meaning of Motorsport 