Can Lewis close the gap?
The Americas swing of the championship continues, and the teams return to a track which has the potential to bring plenty of drama, thanks to some long straights and tight corners, as well as thousands of passionate Mexican fans, who now have a home hero, fighting for the win.
Right at the point where it matters most, Red Bull are turning up the heat, and Mercedes are struggling to keep their cool. Austin was a huge result for the Milton Keynes team, and they now come back to a track which has been kind to them in the past. It looks as if that could potentially continue this year, as Max had a fair few tenths in his back pocket over the Mercedes today in FP2. Things could easily change overnight though; however, it seems that the efficiency of the Red Bull is outdoing the German team. I wouldn’t say it is simple for Verstappen to win, as Hamilton will come back fighting, but he is definitely the favourite right now. The scenes this weekend if Perez won the race would be bonkers, yet, as much as I want it, it is hard to see him beating Max. That being said, it is possible he could beat both Mercedes, which would be huge for the constructor’s battle, and even a podium for Perez would make the crowd go crazy!
It must be a humbling position for Mercedes to be in after so long at the top, to be being straight up beaten race after race. They can at least take solace in the fact that they are executing the best they can with their car, after the 2021 rules were effectively aimed at slowing them down. They have slightly better straight line speed than Red Bull, but that comes at the cost of downforce, especially at the rear, as we saw Lewis sliding around a lot today. I am sure they will close the gap overnight, but it would take an almighty lap from Hamilton to get pole I feel. The race could help them more, as anything can happen. Bottas is in the mix too, unlikely to challenge Lewis, however, it would be great for the team if he could beat Perez.
The momentum behind Ferrari seems to be continuously growing, as they slowly get over their 2020 woes. At the moment their only challenger for 3rd best car this weekend seems to be Gasly, as McLaren have their own struggles. It wasn’t a perfect day for them, as Leclerc spun it into a barrier in the final real corner, which curtailed some of his FP1 running. Sainz looks as though he might have the upper hand of the teammates at the moment, although Charles is very good in qualifying.
McLaren may be in for another difficult weekend, as they lacked pace today really, with Norris outside the top 10. It wasn’t helped by Ricciardo losing a gearbox, which stopped his day early. I am sure they will fight back to be in the top 10, I would be surprised though if they are close to Ferrari, which could be painful for their fight in the constructors.
AlphaTauri started the year with the promise of possibly being the 3rd fastest team, however, it took them almost half the year to start realising that potential. As a result, they have recently started to bear down on Alpine for 5th, and this weekend that trend looks set to continue, partly thanks to the Honda working so well at altitude. It is unfortunate that Tsunoda has had to take engine penalties, as he looks very good this weekend, but I am sure Gasly will do his bit for the team, in another excellent year for him.
If it wasn’t for that crazy race in Hungary, it would be Aston Martin that Alpine are battling, which they seemed to have been doing on track all year. They will likely continue to do this over this weekend, to try and grab any scraps of points they can muster. Vettel has an engine penalty, which will severely hamper his chances, and Stroll didn’t look quick either, so it could be an open goal for Alpine.
Alfa Romeo are in their usual spot, just off the back of the battle for points, which must be rather depressing for them, can they break through again this weekend? Williams haven’t shown much yet, although with George missing FP2, he could still spring a surprise. Finally, shout out to Mick, who beat some good cars today, and was only 9 tenths off P10. I am excited to see if he can keep this going tomorrow!
The key thing about this track, is that pole position doesn’t mean much, as the run to Turn 1 is so long, someone on the 2nd or even 3rd row could be at the front by the end of the straight. So even if Red Bull have the clear pace to win, it could still be a crazy race!
-M
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