Can Lewis do the same as Max did last time out?
The drivers are happy, as the track surface is in a much better condition than when we were here a year ago, however that may lead to a less chaotic race for the fans! That being said, with engine penalties, and long straights, I don’t think it will be short on action!
It was unclear before we came here, as to who would be on top in the championship battle, but we have seen today that Mercedes and Hamilton look as though they have a few tenths on the rest of the field. This may just be as a result of them estimating the track conditions best, given the changes from last year, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they can keep that gap for the rest of the weekend. Bearing that in mind, was it a good weekend then for Lewis to take an engine penalty? Probably, as he should be able to limit the damage well, and lose minimal points to Max, especially if he only changes the ICE! This means that Bottas will be crucial again for the Mercedes effort, as if he can outqualify and hamper Verstappen, it could do wonders for the title fight. However, I am not sure he will be able to do that.
It was not a disaster for Red Bull today, I just simply think that they misjudged how the track would be, as I mentioned earlier. In that vein, they will likely be nearer to the pace tomorrow, although I would be surprised if they can overhaul Mercedes. Max has a very good chance of winning here, and taking back the championship lead, as he should be able to beat Bottas. The bigger question is where will Perez factor in? The season is starting to wind down, and if Red Bull want the constructors, Checo really needs to up his game. Unless the team makes huge gains overnight, you can’t really expect him to beat Bottas, but he has to be right behind him, and get in the way of Lewis ideally for Red Bull.
Normally I put McLaren 3rd in the preview, however, Ferrari with Leclerc have looked so good today, that I feel like putting them here instead. It probably won’t translate over into Saturday and Sunday quite as well, due to engine modes, yet they could make gains on McLaren here, at least with Charles. Sainz was probably focusing more on the race, because qualifying is worthless for him, which explains why he was midpack on the timing sheets.
McLaren did their usual thing on a Friday, nothing spectacular, just collect the data, and focus on when it counts. It may be hard for them to beat Leclerc, however if they can have both cars right up the front, they can negate any points lost against him. I see no reason to be worried about the mental state of the team after Russia, they look as though they have handled it well, admitted their mistakes, done a lot of simulator work with Lando, and come back refreshed. It probably helps too that they won the previous race at Monza!
In the battle for 5th, Alpine have a good margin over Aston Martin. The French team look as though they have an edgy car, which can work for them around this technical track. Aston Martin may have to wait for Sunday, and their race pace, to fight back. If we do get rain, it may help Aston Martin, by balancing the playing field a bit, as well as their natural ability of both drivers in those conditions.
AlphaTauri had a promising day with both cars on the edge of the top 10, which for Tsunoda is great to see. There were concerns though, as they struggled to handle their cars, with spins and offtrack excursions throughout the day. If Gasly can get on top of that, he could get another handful of points, however I still need to be convinced of whether Yuki can do the same!
With Alfa Romeo always being the biggest overachievers on a Friday, they will probably end up at around the same pace as Williams, who don’t look as though they can challenge for points this weekend. Although if it rains, that could all change. This is another brand new track for the two rookies at Haas, however, bearing that in mind, they were really close to the pace of everyone else, suggesting progress is being made!
This is an iconic track for F1, and in wet or dry we could end up with drama throughout the field. For Lewis, he must stay out of that drama, and have a quiet race, to lose as little points as possible!
-M
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