Can Quartararo stop the momentum of Bagnaia?
MotoGP is back at COTA, and having not raced here in 2 and a half years, it is rather an unknown as to who could be strong here, especially between the main two title contenders!
So far, it looks to be neck and neck for Quartararo and Bagnaia, near the front of the time sheets. In the dry, it could favour Fabio, with it being the opposite in the wet. Much like we saw at Misano, Bagnaia may need to get in front of the Yamaha, to interrupt his rhythm, and use the power of the bike to keep him behind. The one thing Pecco has on his side, is nothing to lose, as he has to win the race to keep the title hunt alive really, whereas Quartararo cannot take the same risks.
The biggest curveball to the thrown into the mix, could be the return of Marquez to the front of the pack. He has been on fire so far this weekend, on a track he is so strong at, and if rain continues to affect the weekend, he could get a second win of the year. He isn’t the only Honda up there, in the fight, as both Espargaro and Nakagami were in the top 5 too. I don’t think you could even call them a dark horse at this point, as their pace is clear to see.
Mir is still technically in with a shout of the title; however, Suzuki have lacked the last 1% they had last year, which combined with better execution by other teams, means he will likely fall out of contention this weekend. Considering this is the track where Rins took his first win, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see something special from him. There has been so much potential from him throughout 2021, and now could be a chance to finally go through with it.
The rest of the Ducati squad are, as usual, right at the front, continuing to show that they are the best all round manufacturer on the grid. It could be another case of them all doing well on Saturday, and trying to survive on Sunday. That being said, after Bastiannini’s late race pace at Misano, you never know what they can do on those bikes.
It was a promising day for Binder, who was nearly inside the top 10, which does suggest that some improvements have been made during the recent tests. On the other hand, the rest of the KTM squad are where we usually see them, lacking any sort of pace whatsoever. This is most worrying for Olivera, who is staying with the team for next year, and has scored victories this year, so to all of a sudden lose a major amount of pace, is rather concerning.
Talking of concerning, if today’s times are to be believed, Aleix’s run of consistent points could be at risk. My guess would be that he couldn’t put an entire lap together, however, you do have to bear in mind that the Aprilia has changed a lot since we were last here, so there may be some issues for that bike. My gut feeling is that it isn’t his true pace, but a top 10 will not be as easy as it has been for him in the past.
The rest of the Yamaha squad, are clearly having to adapt a lot to the bike. Dovizioso is doing this pretty well, and is making improvements all the time, which is surprising given how long he has been racing for. Morbidelli is likely not fully recovered from his operations, and is having to get used to a new team. He should be battling to reach Q2 tomorrow, although it will be harder for him in the race. I feel bad leaving out Rossi, but sadly there is nothing good to say about his performances so far this weekend.
Just like we saw back in 2019, I think we are in for a duel to the finish, to decide the winner of the race, ideally between the two title rivals. Although the arrival of Marc could be equally as thrilling!
-M
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