How many points can Lewis gain over Max?
There is a good chance that this could be the most dramatic Grand Prix at Sochi we have ever had, with the threat of rain, especially tomorrow, and possibly on Sunday too. Add to that the mixed up grid we are set to get, and who knows what could end up happening!
With a 100% record around here, Mercedes are the clear favourites, thanks to their engine power and chassis, allowing them to fly around this very flat track. This is set to happen again, as they dominated the running today, especially in the high speed first sector. As we have seen before, Bottas is enjoying the smooth surface of the Olympic resort, and it will be interesting to see if he helps Hamilton at all this weekend, or instead will he only be interested in his own fortune. Chances are it could be the latter, and if so, the rain may be the only major threat to Lewis here, unless someone gets a storming launch off the line down to Turn 2, which we have seen before at this track!
This isn’t a bad track for Red Bull, they have just never been able to get on terms with Mercedes. So, it was therefore a logical choice to take Verstappen’s new engine here, as he should be able to calve through the field pretty well too. After FP1, it was pretty clear they couldn’t contend with the Silver Arrows, and I guess the decision was made after that. If the rain can produce a mixed up grid, it will only help Max, although he was worried today about his straight line speed, when trying to pass cars. That could be a real issue if they can’t sort it out.
It will be really interesting to see how Perez performs on Saturday, if we do get a qualifying session! He won’t be hiding behind the spotlight of Verstappen, he will be Red Bull’s only hope of a podium this weekend, unless chaos ensues to help Max. As much as I want him to be right behind Mercedes, I am worried he won’t be able to do it. I am glad that Red Bull have admitted that the car is the problem for the No. 2 driver, they just need to fix it now!
McLaren are looking very fast here, as long straights and short duration corners are the strengths of that car. Given how they usually sandbag on a Friday, their results from practice could be seen as a bit ominous for the rest of the midfield. I don’t think they will have anything for Mercedes, either in qualifying or the race, however, Perez may find it hard to beat them over one lap, and be stuck behind them all race! Ricciardo may have been caught out by the Red Flag, which stopped him doing a qualifying simulation, as I hope he will be near to Norris on pace from now on. In the aftermath of Monza, McLaren are going to be full of confidence, and Ferrari may have it tough for the rest of the year against them.
Ferrari, with their new engine in Leclerc’s car, are clearly putting a lot of emphasis on next year, and with the might of the opponents right now, it looks more and more unlikely they will be able to finish 3rd in the constructors. The good news for them, is that the new engine performed well for Charles, and they should be able to get a strong haul of points this weekend, at least with Sainz, if all goes well. They will be hoping for rain, as that will negate the power advantage of other cars, and their driveability will be a massive help! Leclerc would do well to score some points on Sunday, as the midfield is always very competitive.
Alpine had a very promising day, on a track which you would think could suit Aston Martin better, given their similarities to Mercedes. Time will tell if that is the case when the points are handed out, although if the forecast is to be believed, track position and wet prowess could be more crucial than pure car pace. In that scenario, Stroll and Alonso could be the ones to watch, especially Stroll who did great things in the Williams in the wet. As we usually see, they will likely be around 8th to 12th, trying to make small gains over each other.
AlphaTauri are in the same position that they usually are in, where Gasly is doing brilliant things in the car, whilst Tsunoda continues to struggle. Gasly did have a small off track excursion, as he hit the kerb at Turn 2 quite hard, destroying his front wing. That will be something to note for the whole field, as the weekend progresses.
Alfa Romeo only managed to make an impact in today’s running, when Giovinazzi span at Turn 8 and hit the wall. It was a big price to pay for a small mistake in going slightly wide, and we saw Leclerc do the same thing but miss the wall. Russell was on a similar pace to the midfield runners, and we know what he can do in the wet, so points could be on the cards again for him this weekend!
This could be an important weekend for the 2 title contenders, as will all the remaining races this year, because Hamilton surely has to win this weekend, whilst every point that Verstappen can get, could be the difference between winning and losing a title!
-M
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