What does today’s qualifying mean for the rest of the weekend?
Sprint qualifying is back, which means I can review qualifying here, and it also means more points on offer for the team which works best around this temple of speed! On today’s evidence, you would have to say that is Mercedes!
Having not won for the past 3 races, it was important that the reigning champions get back on the front foot in the championship fight for their sake. Their form guide around this track, especially compared to Red Bull in the past was very favourable, and so it proved to be this time, at least over one lap! It was not Hamilton though, who will get to start from the front for the Sprint tomorrow, instead, the man on his way out showed he still has it, as he grabbed the top spot right at the end of the session. Fair play to Bottas, as it must have been a hit for him psychologically, to know he is leaving the team, so this is a great way to bounce back.
Lewis barely missed out, and will want to take that spot back tomorrow, to get all 3 points. That is what could make the Sprint very interesting, as Bottas may want to get all the points for his own sake, whereas Hamilton needs the points against Max, who will in turn be right on them going into Turn 1. My guess would be, right now, that Mercedes will have a race pace advantage too over Red Bull, but probably less than what we saw today.
4 tenths of a second gap to first place is pretty big, given the gaps we have seen so far this year. Yet, for Red Bull, they cannot be disappointed, it is simply a side effect of their high rake set up, which causes more drag on the car. In fact, Verstappen did well to get to 3rd, as there were other fast cars out there. In both the Sprint and the main race, Max needs to attack on the 1st lap, otherwise the Mercedes will likely pull away from him, it could be fascinating to see if we get drama at the start! Perez was a sacrificial lamb today, all to get Max as far up front as they could, bearing that and their lack of pace in mind, 9th isn’t terrible for him, and he has 2 starts to make his way forwards.
With the Mercedes engine in the back, the McLaren is looking like a weapon this weekend, with both cars right up the front, nearly pushing Verstappen down to 5th. They could very well take advantage of any action in front of them, or simply have the straight line speed to attack the Red Bull. With Bottas taking an engine penalty for Sunday, they will be in the box seat to grab that final spot on the podium, depending on how well Checo climbs through the field. Credit to Ricciardo as well, for being right where he should be on pace with Lando. I hope this can become a common trend now for the Aussie, as they look to reapply the pressure to Ferrari!
It is becoming almost expected now, that Gasly will be doing amazing things over one lap consistently week after week. With his upturn in race pace, and the draggier Ferrari’s behind, it is very feasible he could stay there for both races this weekend. His teammate once again wasn’t where he needs to be, this time with track limits catching him out!
After the engine scandal of 2019, coming to a power track like this, didn’t bode well for the home team of Ferrari. Having said that, I was impressed with how they went today, and if Charles had had a smoother session, it could have been even better. Moving forwards will be tough as I said, it may be more about watching out for the Mercedes powered Aston Martin’s behind!
Talking of them, they just didn’t have that pure speed compared to those in front, but as usual should come back stronger over a longer run. Someone who did perform over 1 lap, was once again Giovinazzi, who for whatever reason has come alive in recent races. Whether he knows he is being fired, and has used the anger to fuel himself I don’t know, but it is a shame it is happening now, and not a year or two ago.
Alpine and Williams both fell back compared to Zandvoort, my guess would be that they have draggy cars, which didn’t show up on the Dutch beaches, but certainly will here. As always in this part of the field, it will be all about making the most of the opportunities you have, to try and get near the points. The Haas’ and Kubica were fairly close to the pack on pace, which is good to see, and there didn’t seem to be anymore drama between the two rookies either!
Finally, as always at Monza, slipstreams and traffic are big talking points. Again, this year we saw the stupidity and danger that comes from it. The problem is that teams will keep on doing it, because it works for them, they all want to be in the bunch at the right time, so they end up on top of one another. The fines for Alpine and Aston Martin are right in my view, as there was blatant impeding by both teams on leaving the garage. If other cars like Leclerc are penalised for on track blocking, that is probably fair too, although it wasn’t just their fault.
The solution to this seems simple to me, and even if we did it just at this track, I don’t think it would be a problem, that is one shot qualifying. It eliminates all risk of blocking and impeding, and in my opinion, gives us as much drama and suspense in qualifying as we have in it now. It would still be a 1 hour session, so works for TV, and allows every team to have 2 mins of guaranteed TV time per car for sponsors, which could boost investment in the sport. I believe it would also be a more natural way to shake up the grid, as if you don’t nail that one lap, that is it!
Returning to the action we are seeing this weekend, these two race starts could mean fireworks for any number of drivers. Especially for the main race, where it could be just Lewis vs Max! Silverstone Round 2 anyone?
-M
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