Can Honda do well here again?
This weekend could present the perfect chance for someone to begin to cut into the championship lead of Quartararo, as this is a track he doesn’t go as well at. That being said, you can never predict anything in MotoGP!
On paper, the tight technical corners of this circuit should suit the Yamaha bike quite well, yet we have seen in the past few years, that they aren’t able to match their competition here. Past form does not guarantee the future, and today we got quite a surprising result of FP2, as Crutchlow, still getting back up to speed following his retirement, was 3rd fastest, a tenth ahead of Fabio. To me, that suggests that there is good pace in that bike, and once Quartararo understands it, he should be able to go even faster. Which is a worrying sign for the rest! Petronas SRT continue to not have it easy whatsoever in 2021, Rossi looks as though he can’t quite get on with the bike, like he used to, whilst Dixon is taking his time to get up to speed. Let’s hope both can find some improvements for tomorrow!
For qualifying, Ducati, as we often see, will be formidable. They had 4 bikes in the top 6 at the end of FP2, and need to do something if they want any hope of winning a title this year. Miller is on a good vein of form, and will want to reassert himself as the team leader. Right now, they would be my pick for pole, but given how high tyre wear is here, even getting on the podium could be a superb result for them.
This is a big weekend for Aprilia, coming off the back of their first podium in MotoGP, and with Vinales joining the team for the first time here. Aleix has had a very good day, showing speed from the outset, finishing FP2 in 2nd. Much like at Silverstone, if he can get a strong race pace rhythm for Sunday, then anything is possible for him. He will just need to be careful of the rocket ship Ducati’s. Vinales’ start for the team hasn’t shown the fireworks many would have hoped for, as he ended both sessions well down the order. I wouldn’t say it is panic stations yet by any means, however if he can’t get up to speed in the next race or two, it might not look like the smartest decision from him. Chances are though he will find time tomorrow, and even if things go well, don’t expect him into Q2 just yet.
This morning, things looked to be going excellently for Honda, with all 4 riders in the top 10, and Marquez’s time attack looked very promising. In the afternoon, things weren’t as smooth, although the pace should still be there in the bike. We have to remember that Alex Marquez nearly won here last year, with the best race pace of anyone in the field. That probably won’t be the case now, however they have a great chance of another podium. Marc may be their best bet, which isn’t surprising, and could even have a shout at the win!
It was also a mixed day for Suzuki, as Mir was right up front in FP1, but suffered issues in the afternoon, and finished way down in the times. Rins was mid pack all day, as he continues to make up for a less than satisfactory start to the year. My guess, looking at how they went today, is that qualifying will be very tough for them, possibly not even in Q2. High tyre wear should play into their advantage, as long as they choose the right tyres! That being said, if they start 10th or lower, it doesn’t matter how good your race pace is, it won’t allow them to score good points.
KTM are nowhere once again, and although it is just a Friday, I wouldn’t be surprised if it is another off weekend for them, apart from maybe a late race charge from Binder. Tyres are likely the issue once again, and must be their focus for 2022. If they can go well late on in the race, 7th or 8th is very possible.
Last year this track nearly saw Nakagami and Alex Marquez win a race, will we see any surprise winners this year? Or will it be the title favourites duking it out at the front?
-M
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