Can Red Bull fight back?
The summer break has flown by and the 2nd instalment of a fascinating F1 season is set to begin! Then, as if that wasn’t enough, the forecast for this weekend is all over the place, which could really throw a wrench into the weekend’s racing.
Yet again, the gap between Red Bull and Mercedes is negligible at Spa, with Mercedes flying down the straights, and losing out in the corners. The timing sheets suggest that this worked better for Red Bull, however Max had a cleaner qualifying simulation, so there is no clear read of who is ahead. The other thing to factor in, is that if we do get rain, the higher downforce on the Red Bull could be a huge advantage, which may be something for Mercedes to consider.
Despite that point, I get the feeling that Mercedes is in the best position to win here, whether it will be wet or dry. Part of that may be due to momentum from the last race, where Mercedes had a better time of it really. This was compounded at the end of FP2, when Max crashed his car doing race simulations. This shouldn’t harm him too much, but won’t help him either. The one thing I am looking forward to, is the first lap run up to Les Combes on Sunday, which could be what decides the race winner, and could write a new chapter in the story between Lewis and Verstappen.
McLaren and Ferrari were more quiet than usual today, I am less concerned about McLaren as they do sandbag a bit normally on a Friday. As for Ferrari though, the 2 long straights could be massive hurdles for them, to try and score some points here. They will probably be hoping that it rains over the next two days, to add a curve ball into the mix. Leclerc made another error in FP2, as he slid into the barriers late on in the session.
McLaren I would expect to be in the top 10, although there are some other teams out there who are looking quick. If we have been kind on Ricciardo up until now, this is where he needs to be on pace with his teammate, as whilst he hasn’t been terrible before, he hasn’t matched the calibre we expected of him either. As for Norris, another 5th is on the cards, and if chaos ensues, a podium could be very possible.
Alpine and Aston Martin looked very strong today, however we have seen previously that come to nothing this year. Looking at previous form, Alpine may be better in qualifying trim, whereas Aston Martin could snatch points off them in the race. The Alpine has looked a bit unstable too today, especially through the Fagnes Chicane, which would be better over a single lap run. The news of Alonso staying at Alpine is no surprise, he has excelled on returning to the sport, and really pressurised his younger teammate.
Alpha Tauri may be similar in performance to Alpine, as Gasly has been mighty on a Saturday, but lacked the consistency to stay there in the races. Tsunoda, I hope has taken some time to understand where he should expect himself to be in the pecking order, and how to avoid overdriving through the 2nd half of the year. If he can do that, this could be the start of a promising run for him.
Kimi crashing in the pitlane could be the sign of a tough 12 races for them coming up, as their car is only able to get some points in really crazy races. As for the drivers, Kimi looks done with the sport really, and in my view, whilst Giovinazzi has impressed on occasions, I am not sure it is enough to stay in F1.
I don’t think that Williams is done with scoring points yet this year. Russell had a couple of opportunities to bag points before Hungary, and more could come up this year, so a great year could get even better for them. George’s future is still unclear, and the mood in the press conference suggested to me that Valtteri was happy, so could be staying with the team, which would be a shame in my view. Latifi may have grabbed a huge number of points last time out, however given his usual gap to Russell, his future is not safe by any means.
Finally, Haas just need a clean rest of the season, and build confidence in their drivers, as they develop what will hopefully be a better car for 2022. It would be bonkers if they got any points this year, as they have never really troubled any other teams, so consistent pace must be their aim.
F1 is back, and the pressure and tension are going to go from 0 to 100 very quickly, as battles up and down the field spark into life once again. I just hope we get as much drama as we saw in the first 11 races of 2021!
-M
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